今年前兩個月，我國大米出口量出現大幅上漲。業內人士預計，2015年大米進口量也將維持高位。而由于國際大米出口市場競爭日趨激烈，各個國家爭相促銷庫存大米，短期內，國際米價難以大幅上漲。

國內外大米價差擴大

據中國海關總署近日公布的數據顯示，中國2月份出口大米15120噸，1月份出口大米19312噸，1~2月份大米出口總量為34432噸，去年同期累計為24182噸，同比增長42.4%。
業內人士預計，2015年我國大米進口量仍有可能超過250萬噸。2015年稻谷的最低收購價與去年持平；而國際大米出口市場競爭仍將十分激烈，近日，泰國政府已明確表示將在2015年促銷1000萬噸左右的庫存大米，其他諸如柬埔寨等主產國的大米出口計劃也較去年提高，國際米價大幅上揚的可能性較小。

值得注意的是，近期，國內外大米價差有所擴大。目前，泰國5%破碎率大米到我國港口的C&F價為426美元/噸，到港成本約為3139元/噸；越南5%破碎率大米到我國港口的C&F價為360美元/噸，到港成本約為2668元/噸。這與我國南方銷區早秈米價差為760元/噸~1250元/噸。

3月過后，南方儲備稻谷即將進入輪換期，而其存儲品種以秈稻為主，再加上部分地區上年的輪換任務尚未完成，預計短期內秈稻供應增加，陳稻市場價格下行壓力較大，再加上近幾個月國際低品質大米價格持續下跌，與國內大米的價差連續數月擴大，進口大米流入國內的數量也將維持高位。（中國進出口網）

In the first two months of this year, China's export volume of rice rose sharply. Industry insiders estimate that in 2015 the amount of rice imports will remain high. And because the international rice export market is increasingly fierce, each country competes to promote rice stocks. In the short term, it’s difficult to rise sharply for international rice prices.

Expanding rice price difference at home and abroad

According to data recently released by China General Administration of Customs, China exported 15,120 tons of rice in February, 19,312 tons of rice in January, total exports of these two months reached 34,432 tons, an increase of 42.4%, compared with the cumulative 24,182 tons last year.

Industry insiders estimate that in 2015, China's rice import volume may still be more than 2.5 million tons. The minimum purchase price of rice in 2015 is as same as the last year’s price; and the international rice export market will remain very intense competition, recently, the Thai government has made it clear that in 2015 about 10 million tons of rice stocks will be promoted, other major rice producing countries such as Cambodia also increase rice exports, international rice prices are less likely to rise sharply.

It is noteworthy that, recently, the domestic and international rice difference expands. Currently, C&F price of Thai 5% broken rate of rice exporting to the Chinese port is $ 426 / ton, cost to port is 3139 yuan / ton; C&F price of Vietnamese 5% broken rate of rice to the Chinese port of C & F price $ 360 / ton, cost to port is about 2668 yuan / ton. The price difference from the indica rice in southern China is 760 yuan / ton to 1250 yuan / ton.

After March, the reserve rice in the South will enter the rotation period, and the main storage variety is indica, plus parts of last year's rotation task has not been completed, it is expected to increase in the short term supply of indica rice, rice last year’s rice price falling down, coupled with low-quality rice price downward in recent months, thus the rice price difference expands for several months, imported rice volume will also remain high.