今年前兩個(gè)月，我國(guó)大米出口量出現(xiàn)大幅上漲。業(yè)內(nèi)人士預(yù)計(jì)，2015年大米進(jìn)口量也將維持高位。而由于國(guó)際大米出口市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日趨激烈，各個(gè)國(guó)家爭(zhēng)相促銷庫(kù)存大米，短期內(nèi)，國(guó)際米價(jià)難以大幅上漲。

國(guó)內(nèi)外大米價(jià)差擴(kuò)大

據(jù)中國(guó)海關(guān)總署近日公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)2月份出口大米15120噸，1月份出口大米19312噸，1~2月份大米出口總量為34432噸，去年同期累計(jì)為24182噸，同比增長(zhǎng)42.4%。
業(yè)內(nèi)人士預(yù)計(jì)，2015年我國(guó)大米進(jìn)口量仍有可能超過(guò)250萬(wàn)噸。2015年稻谷的最低收購(gòu)價(jià)與去年持平；而國(guó)際大米出口市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)仍將十分激烈，近日，泰國(guó)政府已明確表示將在2015年促銷1000萬(wàn)噸左右的庫(kù)存大米，其他諸如柬埔寨等主產(chǎn)國(guó)的大米出口計(jì)劃也較去年提高，國(guó)際米價(jià)大幅上揚(yáng)的可能性較小。

值得注意的是，近期，國(guó)內(nèi)外大米價(jià)差有所擴(kuò)大。目前，泰國(guó)5%破碎率大米到我國(guó)港口的C&F價(jià)為426美元/噸，到港成本約為3139元/噸；越南5%破碎率大米到我國(guó)港口的C&F價(jià)為360美元/噸，到港成本約為2668元/噸。這與我國(guó)南方銷區(qū)早秈米價(jià)差為760元/噸~1250元/噸。

3月過(guò)后，南方儲(chǔ)備稻谷即將進(jìn)入輪換期，而其存儲(chǔ)品種以秈稻為主，再加上部分地區(qū)上年的輪換任務(wù)尚未完成，預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)秈稻供應(yīng)增加，陳稻市場(chǎng)價(jià)格下行壓力較大，再加上近幾個(gè)月國(guó)際低品質(zhì)大米價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌，與國(guó)內(nèi)大米的價(jià)差連續(xù)數(shù)月擴(kuò)大，進(jìn)口大米流入國(guó)內(nèi)的數(shù)量也將維持高位。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）

In the first two months of this year, China's export volume of rice rose sharply. Industry insiders estimate that in 2015 the amount of rice imports will remain high. And because the international rice export market is increasingly fierce, each country competes to promote rice stocks. In the short term, it’s difficult to rise sharply for international rice prices.

Expanding rice price difference at home and abroad

According to data recently released by China General Administration of Customs, China exported 15,120 tons of rice in February, 19,312 tons of rice in January, total exports of these two months reached 34,432 tons, an increase of 42.4%, compared with the cumulative 24,182 tons last year.

Industry insiders estimate that in 2015, China's rice import volume may still be more than 2.5 million tons. The minimum purchase price of rice in 2015 is as same as the last year’s price; and the international rice export market will remain very intense competition, recently, the Thai government has made it clear that in 2015 about 10 million tons of rice stocks will be promoted, other major rice producing countries such as Cambodia also increase rice exports, international rice prices are less likely to rise sharply.

It is noteworthy that, recently, the domestic and international rice difference expands. Currently, C&F price of Thai 5% broken rate of rice exporting to the Chinese port is $ 426 / ton, cost to port is 3139 yuan / ton; C&F price of Vietnamese 5% broken rate of rice to the Chinese port of C & F price $ 360 / ton, cost to port is about 2668 yuan / ton. The price difference from the indica rice in southern China is 760 yuan / ton to 1250 yuan / ton.

After March, the reserve rice in the South will enter the rotation period, and the main storage variety is indica, plus parts of last year's rotation task has not been completed, it is expected to increase in the short term supply of indica rice, rice last year’s rice price falling down, coupled with low-quality rice price downward in recent months, thus the rice price difference expands for several months, imported rice volume will also remain high.