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英國《金融時報》對相關數據進行分析發現，若不是全球大宗商品價格暴跌，中國經濟在第一季度的擴張速度將不到6%。這令人擔憂政府實現7%全年增長目標的能力。
中國國家統計局(NBS)在4月發布的第一季度簡報中，報告國內生產總值(GDP)增加了7%，但并未提供整體增長數字的三個組成部分的數據：消費、投資和凈出口。
中國政府近年一直試圖提振消費，同時推動經濟擺脫傳統上對信貸助燃投資的依賴。凈出口數字在中國對貿易伙伴有整體順差的情況下會提振增長數字，傳統上，它對產出的影響較小。
根據最近才可獲得的中國第一季度GDP分類數據，凈出口為中國7%的增長貢獻了1.3個百分點。相比之下，凈出口在2014年7.4%（中國25年來最慢的年度擴張速度）的增長數字中只占0.1個百分點。
與此同時，消費和投資分別占第一季度經濟增長的4.5和1.2個百分點。若沒有來自凈出口的1.3個百分點的提振，中國第一季度增長數字將低得多，大約為5.7%。
“這相當令人擔憂，”咨詢公司信源(Trusted Sources)中國經濟學家莊波表示。“這就是為什么（最近幾個月）政府的政策變得更加積極的原因。”
中國政府自去年11月以來已四次降息，力求將增長穩定在7%左右。中國將于下周公布第二季度GDP估算數字。（中國進出口網）
China’s economy would have expanded at less than 6 per cent in the first quarter if not for the collapse in global commodity prices, according to data reviewed by the Financial Times, raising concerns about the government’s ability to hit its 7 per cent growth target for the full year.
At its first-quarter briefing in April, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product had increased 7 per cent but did not provide a breakdown of the growth figure into its three components — consumption, investment and net exports.
The Chinese government has been trying to boost consumption while weaning the economy off its traditional reliance on credit-fuelled investment. The net export figure, which boosts growth when China enjoys an overall surplus with its trading partners, has traditionally had a much more modest impact on output.
According to a breakdown of China’s first-quarter GDP figure that has only recently become available, net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points of the country’s seven per cent growth. By comparison, net exports accounted for just 0.1 percentage points of the 7.4 per cent growth figure reported for 2014 — China’s slowest annual rate of expansion in a quarter century.
Consumption and investment, meanwhile, accounted for 4.5 and 1.2 percentage points of first-quarter growth respectively. Without the 1.3 percentage point boost from net exports, China’s first-quarter growth figure would have been much lower at about 5.7 per cent.
“It’s quite worrisome,” said Bo Zhuang, China economist at consultancy Trusted Sources. “That’s why the government’s policies have been much more aggressive [over recent months].”
The Chinese government, which will release its second-quarter GDP estimate next week, has cut interest rates four times since November in a bid to keep growth steady at about 7 per cent.
