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經過5年多的談判后，12個國家在10月5日早晨宣布成功簽署了《跨太平洋伙伴關系協定》(TPP)。TPP涵蓋了全球近40%的經濟總量。對奧巴馬政府來說，該協定是一個巨大的成就，可能具有深遠的地緣政治影響。TPP有望成為奧巴馬政府兩大外交政策成就之一（還有一個是伊朗核協議），并可能成為他最大的政治遺產之一。遺憾的是，簽署協議只是第一步——奧巴馬在推動美國國會通過TPP時將面臨巨大挑戰。
主要益處
該協議將亞洲和拉美的12個國家聯系在一起，致力于在許多成員國極為敏感的一些領域（比如汽車和農業）降低關稅，并解決其他眾多貿易事項（從野生動物保護到制藥行業的知識產權）。華盛頓的彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)表示，到2025年，TPP每年可能給全球帶來2950億美元的益處。
但經濟效益只是該協定的積極方面之一。盡管還不是板上釘釘，但它也有望帶來巨大的地緣政治影響。TPP并非唯一可選的亞洲貿易協定。例如，中國此前支持替代的“區域全面經濟伙伴關系協定”(RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership)。但美國、澳大利亞、文萊、加拿大、智利、日本、馬來西亞、墨西哥、新西蘭、秘魯、新加坡和越南這12個TPP成員國在哪些標準和規則（從提高透明度和反腐，到更為自由和開放的市場）最有利于為本國人民帶來最大福祉的問題上，發出了明確信號。
西方領導地位
TPP現在樹立了標桿。如果獲得成功的話，其他國家將有望加入，最重要的將是印度、中國和韓國。但這將需要時間，TPP還必須首先證明自己。為了加入TPP，那些準成員國將不得不做出極為艱難的政治選擇，它們和它們的人民將需要首先看到實實在在的重大好處。但門已經打開，只要TPP實現其部分潛力，其他國家就會來敲門。
盡管某些人發表種種言論，但TPP并不是要將中國排除在外。有人希望有一天中國會加入。但與此同時，TPP可能有助于許多亞洲國家貿易多元化，擺脫當前依賴中國的局面（除了文萊以外，中國是所有TPP亞洲成員國的第一大進口來源，同時中國還躋身于這些國家的三大出口目的地之列）。
該協定也有助于一些領導人（尤其是日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)）在國內采取一些必要的、但在政治上棘手的舉措。安倍的“三支箭”包括亟需的經濟結構改革——TPP將會協助這種改革，提供外部激勵和一些切實的好處，使良藥不那么苦口。
最后，該協定是一個小小的跡象，表明（廣義的）西方經濟領導地位并未完全消失。盡管一段時間以來顯而易見的是，二戰后設立的布雷頓森林體系不再合乎需要，但各方并未采取什么行動更新這一體系。在2008年經濟衰退之后成立的20國集團(G20)一度發揮了其應有的作用。12個國家能夠在TPP的框架下團結起來或許表明，仍有可能制定新的支持長期規范的規則和協定。
勝負難料
這并不是說，該協議的所有元素都是積極的。和往常一樣，總有贏家和輸家。在美國，從煙草公司到制藥企業和工會等許多利益集團已經在表示反對。對許多人來說，標準或保護機制還不夠到位。同時，盡管通過貿易可能創造更多的就業崗位，但一些人將會失業。
正是這些利益集團將會加大推動該協定在美國（和其他地方）獲得通過的難度。包括美國在內的許多立法機關將需要就此舉行投票。國會將有90天的時間進行考慮（包括公開協議文本后的60天時間），這將讓國會辯論延伸至2016選舉年。
這是奧巴馬面臨的重大挑戰。共和黨通常會支持自由貿易。但隨著選舉臨近，任何共和黨人都很難讓奧巴馬獲得如此重大的勝利。人們會希望，民主黨人將在如此重要的事情上支持他們的總統。但對民主黨來說，這是非常敏感的問題，該黨往往以未能為美國勞工提供足夠保護為由，反對貿易法案。在希拉里克林頓(HillaryClinton)和其他人到美國中部爭取民主黨選票之際，人們將會密切關注他們如何回應該協定。（據后來的報道，希拉里已經表示反對TPP。）
這種局面將勝負難料。TPP在任何時候都會引發爭議，但現在愈顯敏感。另一方面，批準該協定對確保當前有利于西方的規則和標準長期存續非常關鍵。同時有必要表明西方可以繼續有所作為。推動TPP獲得通過是至關重要的。（中國進出口網）
After more than five years of negotiations, Monday morning 12 countries announced thesuccessful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement that coversnearly 40 per cent of the global economy. This deal is a significant success for the Obamaadministration, with potentially profound geostrategic implications. The TPP has thepotential to be one of the top two foreign policy successes of the Obama administration(along with the Iran nuclear deal) and could be one of his greatest legacies. Unfortunately, thesigning is merely the first step –the US president is going to have a huge challenge in gettingit through Congress.
Major benefits
Bringing together 12 countries in Asia and Latin America the deal focuses on tariff reductions insome extremely sensitive areas for many of the member states, such as automobiles andagriculture, as well as addressing a number of other trade issues ranging from wildlifeconservation to intellectual property issues in the pharmaceutical arena. According to thePeterson Institute in Washington, DC, by 2025 the TPP could result in annual benefits (opens innew window) of $295 billion globally.
But the economic benefits are only one upside of the deal. While it is by no means assured,there could also be a significant geostrategic impact. The TPP was not the only Asian tradeagreement of choice. China, for example, had been supporting an alternative RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership. But the 12 TPP participants – the US, Australia, Brunei,Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam – sent aclear message regarding the kind of standards and rules they believe are best placed to providethe greatest benefit to their populations – from greater transparency and anticorruption tomore free and open markets.
Western leadership
The TPP now sets the bar. If successful, in time other states will hopefully join including, mostsignificantly, India, China and South Korea. But this will take time and the TPP has to proveitself first. Prospective member states will have to make extremely tough political choices inorder to join and they and their populations will need to see meaningful tangible benefits first.But the door has been left open and if the TPP turns out to realize some of its potential,others could come knocking on the door.
Despite the rhetoric from some, the deal is not about excluding China. There are some whohope, some day, to see it join. But, at the same time, it could facilitate a diversification bymany Asian states away from their current China-dependence (excepting Brunei, China is thenumber one importer for all the Asian TPP states and in the top three for their exports).
The deal also helps some leaders, most notably Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to takesome necessary, but politically difficult, domestic steps. Abe’s ‘three arrows’ include much-needed economic structural reform – the TPP will assist with this, providing an externalimpetus and a spoonful of sugar to go along with the tough medicine.
Finally, the deal is a small sign that Western (broadly defined) economic leadership has notdisappeared entirely. While it has been clear for some time that the Bretton Woods institutionsset up following the Second World War are no longer fit for purpose, little has been done toupdate them. The G20, set up following the 2008 recession, served its purpose for a while. Theability of 12 nations to come together on TPP is perhaps a sign that new rules and agreementsin support of long-standing norms are still possible.
Close call
This is not to say that all elements of the deal are positive. As always there are winners andlosers. In the US, many interest groups from tobacco companies to pharmaceuticals to uniosare already pushing back. The standards or protections are, for many, not sufficient. And whilemore jobs might be created through trade, some people will lose theirs.
It is these groups that will make the passing of this deal in the United States (and elsewher)so tough. Many legislatures will need to vote on this, including in the US. Congress will have 90days to consider it (including 60 in which the text is public). This is going to move theCongressional debate well into 2016, an election year.
And this is wher President Obama has a major challenge on his hands. Typically, free trade issomething that the Republican Party can get behind. But, this close to an election, it will bevery tough for any Republican to give President Obama such a big win. One would hope that theDemocrats would support their president on something so important. But this is very sensitiveissue for Democrats, who tend to reject trade bills as not providing sufficient protection forAmerican labour. And as Hillary Clinton and others go out to court the Democratic vote in MiddleAmerica, they are going to be watched very closely for how they respond to this agreement.
This is going to be a very close call. It would be controversial at any time, but right now thesensitivities are heightened. On the other hand, approving this deal is vital to ensure thelongevity of the current rules and standards which favour the West. And it is necessary toshow that the West can continue to be effective. It is paramount that the TPP pass.
