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近日，海關信息網（www.haiguan.info）發布《2014年我國經濟形勢綜述及進出口貿易形勢分析報告》（以下簡稱年度報告）。
報告認為：2015年全球經濟延續弱勢復蘇態勢，面臨格局失衡、地緣政治等風險，國內經濟增速放緩的同時結構調整加快。進出口貿易或將迎來政策密集期和新增長點培育期。預計2015年進出口額27.5萬億元人民幣，增長約3.9%；其中，進口12.2萬億元人民幣，增長約1.3%，出口15.3萬億元人民幣，增長約6.1%。
201４年我國經濟增速放緩，逐步進入“新常態”運行軌道，并呈現以下特點：
第二，2014年我國進出口貨運量總體保持增長態勢，貨運量與貿易額走勢基本一致。
第三，區域布局進一步優化：東部地區外貿增速放緩，比重持續回落；中西部地區外貿依然保持高速增長，發展后勁十足，或將成未來我國外貿新的增長點。
第四，一般貿易比重繼續提高，外貿結構調整成效初步顯現；但一般貿易項下進口微幅萎縮，凸顯內需疲軟。
第五，從商品分析，機電進出口增，高新技術微降，勞動密集型商品出口持穩，“兩高一資”商品出口快速增長，大宗商品進口量增價跌，涉及民生的農產品進口快速增長。
此外，報告還對2015年我國進出口貿易的影響因素進行深度分析及進出口走勢預判。
隨著我國經濟增長進入“新常態”，2015年我國外貿將繼續保持個位數增長。出口方面，雖然全球經濟整體仍呈現弱勢復蘇態勢，但是“一帶一路”戰略的推進將為我國出口提供支撐，預計年內出口將繼續保持平穩增長；進口方面，仍面臨國內需求偏弱及國際大宗商品價格下跌的雙重壓力，但是隨著包括中西部鐵路、水利工程等基礎建設項目的相繼啟動，2015年進口增速將有所回升。預計： 2015年我國進出口額274563億元人民幣，增長約3.9%；其中，進口121937億元人民幣，增長約1.3%，出口152626億元人民幣，增長約6.1%。（中國進出口網）
Recently, the Customs Information Network (www.haiguan.info) issued the "2014 China's economic situation and the import and export trade situation analysis summary report" (hereinafter referred to as the Annual Report).
The Report says, in 2015 the global economic will continue the weak recovery trend, facing structure imbalance and geopolitical risks, at the same time of the domestic economic slowdown, structural adjustment is accelerating. import and export trade may usher vigorous policies and new growth point incubation period. It’s estimated that in 2015 import and export volume will reach 27.5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 3.9%; of which, imports 12.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.3%, exports 15.3 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 6.1%.
China's economic growth slowed in 2014, and China’s economy is gradually into the "new normal" orbit, and showed the following characteristics:
First, the 2014 foreign trade growth fell down, weak demand inhibited import growth, and the export leading indicators fell for three consecutive months, export growth was weak.
Second, the 2014 overall import and export goods maintained growth momentum, cargo and trade movements basically stayed the same.
Third, he regional distribution further optimized: the growth of foreign trade in the eastern areas declined; the growth of foreign trade in the Midwest areas remained rapid, the development potential is great, which may become the new growth point of China's foreign trade.
Fourth, the proportion of general trade continued to increase, the structural adjustment of the foreign trade began to come into effect; but the imports of the general trade shrink slightly, highlighting weak domestic demand.
Fifth, in terms of commodity, the imports and exports of electromechanical products grew, high-tech went down, labor-intensive exports stayed steady, the exports of energy-consuming, highly-polluting and resource product increased fast, commodities imports volume increased but values decreased, imports of agricultural products grew fast.
In addition, the report also analyzes the factors affecting China's foreign trade in 2015 and predicts the import and export trends. The report notes that, among the favorable factors include the following three aspects.
As China's economic growth goes into the "new normal", in 2015 China's foreign trade will continue to maintain single-digit growth. In Exports, although the global economy as a whole is still showing weak recovery trend, but the promotion of “one belt one road” strategy will give support to China's exports, exports are expected to continue to maintain steady growth during the year; in imports, dual pressure still exit, the domestic demand is still weak and international commodity prices fall down, but with the Midwest railway, water conservancy project and other infrastructure projects to start, in 2015 imports speed will be picked up. It’s estimated that in 2015 import and export volume will reach 27.5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 3.9%; of which, imports 12.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.3%, exports 15.3 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 6.1%.
