投資者在歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)愈演愈烈之際紛紛撤資，但中國(guó)企業(yè)卻反其道而行之，大量來(lái)自中國(guó)的資金進(jìn)入那些遭受危機(jī)沖擊最嚴(yán)重的歐元區(qū)外圍國(guó)家。
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2010年，中國(guó)對(duì)歐盟的直接投資存量略高于61億歐元，落后于印度、冰島和尼日利亞。但到2012年年底，中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資存量已增長(zhǎng)4倍，達(dá)到近270億歐元。
分析師表示，這股投資熱潮可以說(shuō)標(biāo)志著中國(guó)對(duì)外投資模式的轉(zhuǎn)變。預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)對(duì)外投資將在今后10年穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。
研究中國(guó)對(duì)外投資的專家、榮鼎咨詢(Rhodium Group)研究總監(jiān)韓其洛(Thilo Hanemann)表示：“我們看到中國(guó)在歐洲的投資大幅增長(zhǎng)，尤其是在債務(wù)危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期（展開并購(gòu)活動(dòng)）。”
“這在一定程度上是基于機(jī)會(huì)主義的收購(gòu)，因?yàn)槟菚r(shí)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格低廉，但也是中國(guó)對(duì)外投資的長(zhǎng)期結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變，從確保獲得發(fā)展中國(guó)家的自然資源，轉(zhuǎn)向收購(gòu)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的品牌和技術(shù)。”
英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》最近就中國(guó)在歐投資、移民和雄心的現(xiàn)代軌跡展開了調(diào)研。從北京到米蘭、馬德里、里斯本和雅典，一系列報(bào)道揭示出中國(guó)在歐洲發(fā)展規(guī)模、投資動(dòng)向以及中國(guó)投資者和移民的策略——這一切全都與中國(guó)從1999年開始實(shí)施的“走出去”政策密切相關(guān)，目的是發(fā)現(xiàn)新市場(chǎng)和增強(qiáng)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力。
中國(guó)對(duì)歐洲的擴(kuò)張并非全都一帆風(fēng)順。當(dāng)中國(guó)海外工程有限責(zé)任公司（Covec，簡(jiǎn)稱中海外）贏得從華沙到德國(guó)邊境的公路的建造合同時(shí)，北京方面將其譽(yù)為中國(guó)承包商在歐洲達(dá)成交易的典范。
但在中海外成本超支和屢次違反當(dāng)?shù)貏趧?dòng)法之后，波蘭政府在2011年取消了合同，當(dāng)時(shí)該項(xiàng)目開工還不到兩年。
最令中海外感到困惑的是波蘭的環(huán)境保護(hù)法。該法規(guī)定，在公路下方必須為野生動(dòng)物修建隧道，還有一次要停工兩周，以便讓青蛙、蟾蜍和蠑螈等7種珍稀動(dòng)物搬家。
這場(chǎng)挫折在中國(guó)商界廣為流傳，寓意著中國(guó)投資者在歐經(jīng)商或收購(gòu)時(shí)面臨的法律和文化問(wèn)題。然而，即便在市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期，中海外以及其他先鋒企業(yè)所遭遇的困難也未影響中國(guó)在歐洲投資的信心。
中國(guó)年度對(duì)歐投資總額相比2011年和2012年的高峰期已有所下降，但歐洲各國(guó)的分析師認(rèn)為，強(qiáng)勁的交易正在醞釀之中，同時(shí)有跡象表明，本十年期間中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資將顯著增長(zhǎng)。
中國(guó)對(duì)外投資（以及外國(guó)對(duì)華投資）的官方數(shù)據(jù)以不可靠出名，原因是政府在統(tǒng)計(jì)中并不計(jì)入本國(guó)企業(yè)海外子公司的大部分活動(dòng)，也不試圖確定投資最終流向哪里。
榮鼎咨詢和傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)(Heritage Foundation)等獨(dú)立機(jī)構(gòu)記錄了近年中國(guó)投資目的地的變化——從資源豐富的非洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家，轉(zhuǎn)向在歐洲這樣的發(fā)達(dá)世界結(jié)盟。傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)是一家總部位于美國(guó)、持保守立場(chǎng)的智庫(kù)。

中國(guó)私營(yíng)企業(yè)在這一轉(zhuǎn)變中扮演了重要角色。德意志銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，國(guó)有企業(yè)是中國(guó)對(duì)外投資的先鋒，在2008年至2013年期間，國(guó)有企業(yè)占到中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資的78%。在國(guó)內(nèi)，大型國(guó)企在電信、交通、能源和金融等行業(yè)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。
但德意志銀行的研究顯示，從2011年到2013年間，中國(guó)私營(yíng)企業(yè)在歐洲并購(gòu)活動(dòng)中的份額上升至逾30%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于之前3年里的4%。
美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)基金會(huì)編制的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)在某一年的對(duì)外投資往往會(huì)集中于某個(gè)國(guó)家。2014年迄今，意大利是中國(guó)在歐洲最大的投資目的地，今年上半年中國(guó)對(duì)意投資大幅飆升。在70億美元的中國(guó)對(duì)意投資存量中，近一半是在2014年作出的投資。中國(guó)對(duì)葡萄牙的投資在2011年和2014年大幅飆升。中國(guó)企業(yè)曾經(jīng)有兩年在英國(guó)并購(gòu)活動(dòng)頻繁。自債務(wù)危機(jī)以來(lái)，中國(guó)對(duì)西班牙的投資逐步增長(zhǎng)。
中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資在增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)仍面臨多個(gè)障礙。美國(guó)保守派智庫(kù)——美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所(American Enterprise Institute)學(xué)者、一個(gè)獨(dú)立的中國(guó)對(duì)外投資數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的編制者史劍道(Derek Scissors)表示：“相對(duì)于中國(guó)4萬(wàn)億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備，中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資規(guī)模仍不是太大，因?yàn)闅W洲不愿向中國(guó)出售其尖端技術(shù)，而且它也沒(méi)有多少中國(guó)真正想要的其他資產(chǎn)。未來(lái)幾年，中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資額將穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，但不會(huì)取得重大突破。”
史劍道說(shuō)：“中國(guó)企業(yè)正在收購(gòu)2億美元、而非2000萬(wàn)美元的德國(guó)企業(yè)。”
中國(guó)商務(wù)部(Ministry of Commerce)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，外國(guó)對(duì)華直接投資額去年達(dá)到1170億美元，仍顯著高于中國(guó)對(duì)外投資額（1080億美元）。
商務(wù)部數(shù)據(jù)似乎表明，在2013年中國(guó)對(duì)外投資中，只有對(duì)歐投資額下降了，下降幅度超過(guò)15%。但該數(shù)據(jù)似乎大幅低估了實(shí)際投資流量，并且沒(méi)有計(jì)入經(jīng)由香港流入歐洲的投資。
只舉一例就能說(shuō)明官方數(shù)據(jù)的問(wèn)題有多大。官方數(shù)據(jù)傳統(tǒng)上將歐洲小國(guó)盧森堡統(tǒng)計(jì)為中國(guó)對(duì)歐投資的最大目的地，這是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)企業(yè)往往會(huì)利用盧森堡較為寬松的稅收和公司結(jié)構(gòu)要求，而在那里注冊(cè)法人實(shí)體，進(jìn)而通過(guò)這些實(shí)體向歐洲其他地區(qū)投資。
中信銀行(Citic Bank)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、研究主管廖群預(yù)計(jì)，到2017年中國(guó)對(duì)外投資存量將超過(guò)2000億美元，其中對(duì)歐洲投資的份額將會(huì)越來(lái)越高。
中國(guó)歐盟商會(huì)(Euccc)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，中國(guó)企業(yè)將勞動(dòng)法、人力資源成本、移民法規(guī)和“管理風(fēng)格上的文化差異”視為在歐開展業(yè)務(wù)的最大障礙。
但突顯未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)的一個(gè)跡象是，在已經(jīng)在歐洲投資的中國(guó)企業(yè)中，絕大多數(shù)（97%）表示他們計(jì)劃在今后幾年加大投資。
延伸閱讀：中國(guó)私人股本買家的興起
今年7月，英國(guó)廣受歡迎的餐飲連鎖店P(guān)izzaExpress被出售給總部位于北京的弘毅投資(Hony Capital)，這突顯出有意買入歐洲資產(chǎn)的中國(guó)私人股本買家的興起。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)銀行家、在香港為私人股本集團(tuán)提供咨詢服務(wù)的伊恩•德雷頓(Iain Drayton)表示：“突然之間，歐洲越來(lái)越有興趣了解這個(gè)新的買家群體。許多中國(guó)私人股本公司籌集了大量的資本，而且尋求將其投向亞洲以外的地方，如歐洲或美國(guó)。”
弘毅投資旗下7只基金管理著逾68億美元的資產(chǎn)，它屬于中國(guó)新一代本土投資公司，它們?cè)谖锷鼈冋J(rèn)為自己可以協(xié)助打開國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的海外公司。它們這么做是在效仿國(guó)有企業(yè)，后者在過(guò)去幾年先是謹(jǐn)慎試水，隨后開始加快收購(gòu)歐洲的技術(shù)和消費(fèi)者品牌。
上月，總部位于上海的復(fù)星集團(tuán)(Fosun)在最后一刻提交了對(duì)Club Med的競(jìng)購(gòu)文件，與意大利私人股本集團(tuán)Investindustrial爭(zhēng)奪這家法國(guó)度假勝地運(yùn)營(yíng)商的控制權(quán)。
銀行家們表示，中國(guó)私人股本集團(tuán)不太可能像前些年的那些收購(gòu)者那樣遭遇可信度危機(jī)。
法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行(Société Générale)銀行家、為復(fù)星等中國(guó)客戶提供咨詢服務(wù)的埃里克•邁耶(Eric Meyer)表示：“過(guò)去，中國(guó)企業(yè)做出收購(gòu)決定所需的時(shí)間往往比西方企業(yè)要長(zhǎng)，而且達(dá)不到自己引發(fā)的價(jià)格預(yù)期。現(xiàn)在情況不再如此。它們是真正有動(dòng)力的買家。”
有政府背景的中國(guó)消費(fèi)者集團(tuán)——光明食品(Bright Food)曾在2010年試圖收購(gòu)生產(chǎn)餅干和雅法蛋糕(Jaffa Cakes)的英國(guó)聯(lián)合餅干公司(United Biscuits)，但未獲成功。然而，兩年后，這家總部位于上海的公司成功地以12億英鎊收購(gòu)早餐麥片品牌維他麥(Weetabix)。此后該公司在歐洲的收購(gòu)還包括法國(guó)葡萄酒商Diva Bordeaux。中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)及娛樂(lè)集團(tuán)萬(wàn)達(dá)(Wanda)去年斥資3億多英鎊收購(gòu)了多塞特郡(Dorset)的豪華游艇制造商圣汐國(guó)際(Sunseeker International)。
德雷頓認(rèn)為，這種趨勢(shì)只會(huì)加強(qiáng)，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)私人股本集團(tuán)將有能力支付比西方收購(gòu)集團(tuán)更高的出價(jià)，從而贏得競(jìng)標(biāo)。(更多資訊請(qǐng)關(guān)注中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)) As investors fled Europe in the worst days of its sovereign debt crisis, China-based companies moved in the other direction and surged in, with cash flowing from China into some of the hardest-hit countries of the eurozone periphery.
In 2010, the total stock of Chinese direct investment in the EU was just over €6.1bn – less than what was held by India, Iceland or Nigeria. By the end of 2012, Chinese investment stock had quadrupled, to nearly €27bn, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank.
The buying spree, analysts say, was nothing short of a transformation of the model of Chinese outbound investment. It is expected to increase steadily over the next decade.
“We saw a massive spike in Chinese investment in Europe, particularly [mergers and acquisitions] during the height of the debt crisis,” says Thilo Hanemann, an expert in Chinese outbound investment and research director at Rhodium Group, a research consultancy.
“This was partly opportunistic buying because assets were cheap and partly it was a structural secular shift in Chinese outbound investment, from securing natural resources in developing countries to acquiring brands and technology in developed countries.”
The Financial Times this week investigates the modern trail of Chinese investment, migration and ambition in Europe. A series of reports from Beijing to Milan to Madrid to Lisbon to Athens reveal the scale of China’s expansion in Europe, the flow of investment and the strategies of Chinese investors and migrants caught up in a national effort – a “going out” policy in place since 1999 – to find new markets and enhance China’s economic strength.
The incursion has not been all plain sailing. When a Chinese state-owned consortium won the bid to build a road from Warsaw to the German border, the government in Beijing presented the deal as a model for Chinese contractors in Europe.
But after cost over-runs and repeated breaches of local labour law, the Polish government cancelled the contract with Covec, the Chinese consortium, in 2011 – less than two years into the project.
What befuddled the Chinese company most were Polish environmental laws requiring tunnels for wildlife to be built beneath the road and a two-week work stoppage while seven rare species of frogs, toads and newts were moved out of the way.
The disaster has become business folklore in Beijing – a parable of the legal and cultural issues Chinese investors face when trying to do business or buy companies in Europe. Still, the obstacles faced by Covec, as well as other pioneering companies, have not dented China’s confidence in European ventures even in times of turmoil.
Total annual Chinese investment in Europe has dropped somewhat from the peak years of 2011 and 2012, but analysts across the continent see robust deals in the making and signs that investment will increase significantly this decade.
Official data on Chinese outbound – and inbound – investment are notoriously unreliable because the government does not measure most activity by Chinese companies’ offshore subsidiaries and does not attempt to work out wher investment ends up.
Independent entities such as Rhodium Group and the Heritage Foundation, a conservative US-based think-tank, have chronicled a recent shift in Chinese money from resource-rich developing countries in Africa to partnerships in developed countries, including Europe.
Private Chinese enterprises are playing an important role in the transition. State-owned Chinese companies were the vanguard for China’s outward investment, with state-owned businesses accounting for 78 per cent of investment in Europe between 2008 and 2013, according to Deutsche Bank. At home, state behemoths dominate industries such as telecoms, transport, energy and finance.
But between 2011 and 2013, private companies’ share in Chinese M&A activity in the continent rose to over 30 per cent – compared to 4 per cent in the previous three years, Deutsche Bank research shows.
Investment tends to cluster in individual countries in any given year, according to data compiled by the Heritage Foundation. So far in 2014, Italy has been China’s biggest target in Europe with a surge of investment in the first half of the year. Close to half of the $7bn in total Chinese investment in Italy was made in 2014 alone. Portugal saw a jump in 2011 and in 2014. The UK has had two years of soaring Chinese activity. Since the debt crisis, Spain has experienced steady increases.
Chinese investment into Europe – while growing – still faces several obstacles. “Relative to China’s $4tn in foreign exchange reserves, the volumes are still not that large because Europe is not willing to sell China its top technologies and it doesn’t have very much else that China really wants,” said Derek Scissors, resident scholar at the conservative US think-tank, the American Enterprise Institute, and compiler of an independent database on Chinese outbound investment. “In the future, we’re probably going to see a steady increase [in Chinese investment to Europe] but no huge breakthroughs.”
“Companies are now buying $200m German companies instead of $20m ones,” Mr Scissors said.
Foreign direct investment into China, which hit $117bn last year, still significantly outstrips China outbound investment, which reached $108bn in 2013, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce data.
Those same figures suggest Europe was the only region that saw a dro in outbound Chinese investment in 2013, with a fall of more than 15 per cent. However, the data appear to significantly undercount the actual flow and do not count investment routed to Europe through Hong Kong.
In just one example of how problematic these official figures can be, they have historically counted tiny Luxembourg as the largest recipient of Chinese investment in Europe. That is because Chinese companies often choose to incorporate legal entities there to take advantage of looser tax and corporate structure requirements before using those entities to make investments elsewher in the continent.
Liao Qun, chief economist and head of research at Citic Bank, predicts China’s total outbound investment to exceed $200bn by 2017 and a growing share of that amount will be destined for Europe.
A survey by the European unio Chamber of Commerce in China found that Chinese companies rated labour laws, human resource costs, immigration rules and “cultural differences in management style” as the biggest obstacles to operating in the continent.
But in a sign of things to come, an overwhelming majority – 97 per cent – of Chinese companies that have invested in Europe said they plan to invest more in the coming years.
Rise of the Chinese private equity buyer
The sale of PizzaExpress, a popular UK restaurant chain, to Beijing-based Hony Capital in July highlights the rise of Chinese private equity buyers determined to snap up assets across Europe, writes Anne-Sylvaine Chassany.
“Suddenly there’s a growing interest in Europe to understand this new contingent of buyers,” Iain Drayton, a Hong Kong-based Goldman Sachs banker who advises private equity groups, says. “A number of Chinese private equity firms have raised large pools of capital and are looking to deploy it beyond the boundaries of Asia, into Europe or the US.”
Hony Capital, with more than $6.8bn in assets under management in seven funds, is part of a new generation of homegrown investment firms now on the look out for overseas companies they think they can help expand in their domestic market. In doing so, they are emulating state owned companies that dipped their toes first over the past years, and have since ramped up efforts to acquire technologies and consumer brands in Europe.
Last month, the Shanghai-based conglomerate Fosun submitted a last minute counterbid for Club Med, battling the Italian private equity group Investindustrial for control of the French holiday resort operator.
Chinese private equity groups are less likely to suffer from a lack of credibility than those earlier players, bankers say.
“In the past, Chinese companies tended to take longer than Western groups to make decisions on acquisitions, and would not live up to the price expectations they raised,” Eric Meyer, a Société Générale banker who has advised Chinese clients including Fosun, says. “It’s no longer the case. They are truly motivated buyers.”
State backed consumer group Bright Food sought and failed to buy United Biscuits, the UK maker of biscuits and Jaffa Cakes, in 2010. Two years later, however, the Shanghai-based company made a winning £1.2bn offer for breakfast cereal brand Weetabix. It has since added French wine merchant Diva Bordeaux to its European purchases. Chinese property and entertainment conglomerate Wanda paid more than £300m for Dorset luxury yachtmaker Sunseeker International last year.
The trend will only strengthen, according to Mr Drayton, as Chinese private equity groups will be able to pay the extra amount of money allowing them to win over western buyout groups in competitive auctions.（更多資訊請(qǐng)關(guān)注中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))