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國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)宣告人民幣幣值“不再被低估”，在連續10多年批評北京方面嚴密管理匯率之后，這標志著一個重大轉變。
此舉相當于在關鍵時刻對北京方面和人民幣投下一大信心票。這也使IMF與其最大股東美國意見分歧，美國堅持認為，中國繼續從美國認為“顯著低估”的人民幣獲得不公平貿易優勢。
自10年前人民幣被允許在一個狹窄的區間向上浮動以來，其兌美元匯率已升值25%，即使過去一年美元相對于其它主要貨幣走高，人民幣也保持了兌美元匯率穩定。
但是，許多經濟學家（截至昨日IMF也在那個陣營）一直認為人民幣被低估。他們指出，北京方面一直以來對匯率的嚴密控制，是中國的出口導向型經濟得以崛起、以至于現在是世界領先貿易大國的一大因素。
對中國經濟的定期評估結束后，IMF第一副總裁戴維•利普頓(David Lipton)在北京發表講話時表示：“盡管人民幣低估過去是造成巨大失衡的一個主要因素，但我們的評估是，過去一年的大幅實際有效升值，已使人民幣匯率升至不再低估的水平。”
在華盛頓，一名美國高級官員表示，盡管美國歡迎人民幣近期的升值，但美國仍然認為人民幣被“顯著低估”，中國對美國和其它國家的貿易順差就是強有力的證據。
IMF中國部前負責人埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，IMF的這一轉變是重要的，因為它標志著自20世紀90年代末亞洲金融危機爆發以來，IMF首次不認為人民幣被低估。這也預示著，人民幣有可能在今年晚些時候被納入用于確定IMF事實上的貨幣——特別提款權(SDR)價值的由少數主要貨幣組成的貨幣籃子。
中國已經公開表示，愿意讓人民幣加入美元、日元、歐元和英鎊的行列，共同組成SDR籃子——此舉將意味著人民幣被承認為一種官方儲備貨幣。
“我們歡迎并分享這一目標，并將在這方面與中國政府密切合作，”利普頓昨日表示。他還指出IMF的明確立場，即人民幣被納入SDR籃子“不是‘是否’的問題，而是什么時候”。
IMF正對SDR安排及其組成貨幣進行評估，定于今年晚些時候完成。若要被納入，人民幣必須被視為“可自由使用”。（中國進出口網）
The International Monetary Fund has declared that China’s currency is “no longer undervalued”, marking a significant shift after more than a decade of criticism of Beijing’s tight management of the renminbi.
The move amounts to a big vote of confidence in Beijing and the renminbi at a critical time. It also puts the IMF at odds with its biggest shareholder, the US, which insists that China continues to draw an unfair trade advantage from a renminbi that it considers “significantly undervalued”.
The renminbi has gained 25 per cent against the US dollar since it was allowed to adjust upwards within a narrow band a decade ago, and has held its value even as the dollar has strengthened against other major currencies over the past year.
But many economists — and, until yesterday, the IMF fell into that camp — have long considered the renminbi to be undervalued. They have pointed to Beijing’s historical tight control of the currency’s value as a big factor in the rise of its export-oriented economy to a point wher it is now the world’s leading trading nation.
Speaking in Beijing at the end of a regular review of China’s economy, David Lipton, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said: “While undervaluation of the renminbi was a major factor causing large imbalances in the past, our assessment is that the substantial real effective appreciation over the past year has brought the exchange rate to a level that is no longer undervalued.”
In Washington a senior US official said that while the US welcomed the recent appreciation in China’s currency it remained of the view that the renminbi was “significantly undervalued” with China’s trade surplus with the US and other nations strong evidence of that.
Eswar Prasad, the former head of the IMF’s China unit, said the shift by the fund was important as it marked the first time since the late 1990s Asian financial crisis that the fund had not deemed the renminbi to be undervalued. It also presaged the likely adoption later this year of the renminbi as one of the small number of major currencies in a basket used to determine the value of the IMF’s de-facto currency, the Special Drawing Rights.
China has publicly expressed its desire for the renminbi to join the dollar, yen, euro and pound sterling in the SDR basket — a move that would see it recognised as an official reserve currency.
“We welcome and share this objective and will work closely with the Chinese authorities in this regard,” Mr Lipton said yesterday, noting the IMF’s stated position on the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR “is not a matter of ‘if’ but when”.
The IMF is conducting a review of the SDR facility and its constituent currencies that is due to be completed later this year. To be included, the renminbi must be deemed to be “freely usable”.
