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淺析中國股市新年暴跌

China's market frozen after 7% fall

放大字體??縮小字體 ??瀏覽次數:3801
核心提示:中國股市在周一交易中損失巨大,首次觸發新實施的“熔斷機制”,提前收市。

中國股市在周一交易中損失巨大,首次觸發新實施的“熔斷機制”,提前收市。

中國藍籌股指數滬深300(CSI 300)周一下跌7%,在新年首個交易日就遭遇了四個月以來最糟糕的一天。

深市1783支股票近1100支跌幅在9.8%到10%的個股跌停下限。上漲的股票只有30支,17只股票達到10%的漲停上限。

滬市1119支股票中上漲的僅有9支。500多支股票跌幅在9.8%到10%之間。

滬深兩市10個板塊全部下跌。深市下跌最嚴重為電信板塊,跌幅達10%,下跌最輕的為消費必需品,跌幅為7.5%。滬市下跌最重的是IT板塊,跌幅8.9%,下跌最輕的是能源板塊,跌幅4.8%。

亞洲各股市在午后交易中也出現下跌,與中國股市大跌保持同步。

導致此次大跌的可能性原因如下:

*上周六發布的中國官方PMI指數顯示中國制造業在12月份連續第五個月收縮。

*讓投資者擔心的還有對大股東施加的股票拋售禁令即將到期,該禁令是去年7月初監管部門施加的,當時是A股市場崩潰最嚴重時期,滬市市值一度蒸發掉了45%。

為了遏制夏季崩盤期間連續單日暴跌后出現的恐慌性拋售,中國監管機構推出了熔斷機制,該機制緊隨現有的漲跌停制度,即如果個股單日漲跌幅超過10%即停止交易。

盡管遭遇劇烈震蕩,在國有金融機構——被稱為“國家隊”——大舉買入的推動下,中國股市在去年8月下旬觸低回升,2015年上證綜指最終累計上漲9.4%。

但現在投資者擔心放松應急救援措施可能會對市場造成新的壓力,尤其當企業盈利依然不景氣的時候。

中國證券監管機構于去年8月下旬暫停大規模購股,但承諾會無限期持有已購股票。去年7月強制停止的首次公開募股(IPO)也于上月恢復。中國監管機構還取消了對券商自營股票每天凈買入的要求。

Trading on China’s stock market finished early on Monday after heavy losses triggered a new “circuit breaker” mechanism for the first time.

China’s blue-chip stock index, the CSI 300, suffered its worst day in four months in the year’s first trading day, falling 7 per cent on Monday.

In Shenzhen, where 1,783 stocks are listed, nearly 1,100 declined between 9.8 per cent and 10 per cent, the downward limit for individual stocks. only 30 stocks gained (and yes, because this is China’s market, 17 stock hit the upward limit of 10 per cent).

In Shanghai, where 1,119 stocks are listed, only nine stocks rose. A little more than 500 stocks fell between 9.8 and 10 per cent.

All 10 sectors in both markets fell. In Shenzhen, the ranges were from -7.5 per cent for consumer staples and -10 per cent for telecoms. In Shanghai, the range was from energy stocks falling 4.8 per cent to IT stocks shedding 8.9 per cent.

Stocks around Asia fell in afternoon trading, in tandem with the sell-off in China.

Among the possible culprits, via Gabriel Wildau in Shanghai:

* A factory survey released on Saturday showed China’s manufacturing sector shrinking for a fifth consecutive month in December.

* Investors are also nervous about the imminent expiration of a ban on stock sales by large shareholders. Regulators imposed the ban in early July at the height of the market rout that at one point had wiped 45 per cent off the value of the Shanghai market.

Regulators introduced the circuit breaker in a bid to curb panic selling after a series of big one-day losses during the summer rout. The mechanism comes on top of existing rules that halts trading in individual shares if they rise or fall by at least 10 per cent in a single day.

Despite heavy volatility, the Shanghai composite ended 9.4 per cent higher in 2015 after large-scale buying from state-owned financial institutions — known as the “national team” — fuelled a recovery from the low point touched in late August.

Now, however, investors are worried that the unwinding of emergency rescue measures could place fresh pressure on the market, even as corporate earnings remain weak.

The securities regulator halted large-scale share purchases in late August, though it pledged to maintain existing holdings indefinitely. Initial public offerings resumed last month after a halt imposed in July. And the regulator has also rescinded a ban on net share sales by securities brokerages’ proprietary trading units.

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