美國經濟增長,美聯儲仍持謹慎態度

2014年從華盛頓報道,7月31日12:03等

馬丁·CRUTSINGER美聯社經濟學作家

美國經濟2014年有一個嚴峻的開始,現在顯現了經濟強勢反彈的勢頭，這種復蘇勢頭將持續到明年。

分析師根據周三政府4 - 6月季度的增長率為4%的統計數據所得出的整體觀點。消費者、企業和政府相結合為經濟復蘇注入了活力。政府還表示,相比去年經濟增長要比之前估計的更強勢。

經濟更良性增長是否將導致美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲,fed)比預期的更早升息尚不清楚。周三美聯儲對經濟提供了一個復雜的信息:增長正在加強,失業率穩步下降。它提到但從某種程度上就業市場仍然欠佳.

      美聯儲為期兩天的政策會議后發表的一份聲明中表示在開始提高其關鍵的短期利率之前,它希望看到經濟的進一步改善。但并沒有提及具體什么時候提高利率。

相反,美聯儲重申計劃“結束后其月度購買債券后，會在相當一段時間保持低短期利率。美聯儲表示,將放緩一個月100億到250億美元債券購買速度。購買,旨在讓長期借款利率保持低水平,在10月將結束。大多數經濟學家認為一年左右可能加息。

經歷了一個年2.1%增速，經濟急劇萎縮的發展期，自上一季度經濟突然反彈。政府提高了之前下降2.9%的估計。但它仍然是2009年初大蕭條最嚴重的時候以來最大收縮在。

上一季度的反彈驗證了分析師的觀點,即經濟的勢頭延續到今年下半年,他們預測經濟年增長率約為3%。

As US Economy Accelerates, Fed Remains Cautious

WASHINGTON — Jul 31, 2014, 12:03 AM ET

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER AP Economics Writer

    After a grim start to 2014, the U.S. economy has rebounded with vigor and should show renewed strength into next year.
That was the general view of analysts Wednesday after the government estimated that the economy grew at a fast 4 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. Consumers, businesses and governments combined to fuel the expansion. The government also said growth was more robust last year than previously estimated.
Whether the healthier expansion will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected is unclear. The Fed offered a mixed message on the economy Wednesday: Growth is strengthening, and the unemployment rate is steadily falling. Yet by some measures, it suggested, the job market remains subpar.
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A statement the Fed issued after a two-day policy meeting signaled that it wants to see further improvement before it starts raising its key short-term interest rate. It offered no clearer hint of when it will raise that rate.
Instead, the Fed reiterated its plan to keep short-term rates low "for a considerable time" after ends its monthly bond purchases. The Fed said it will slow the pace of its purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion a month. The purchases, which have been intended to keep long-term borrowing rates low, are set to end in October. Most economists think a rate increase is about a year away.
The economy sprang back to life last quarter after a dismal winter in which it shrank at a sharp 2.1 percent annual rate. The government upgraded that decline from a previous estimate of a 2.9 percent drop. But it was still the biggest contraction since early 2009 in the depths of the Great Recession.
Last quarter's bounce-back reinforced analysts' view that the economy's momentum is extending into the second half of the year, when they forecast annual growth of around 3 percent.