德國人從經濟反彈中獲得的益處超過了美國人從經濟復蘇中獲得的益處,得益于該國在教育和基礎設施上的更大投資。
在中國,由于污染和其他因素的影響,經濟快速增長只能緩慢轉變為整體經濟“福祉”,而在亞洲新的增長冠軍印度,進步甚至更為遲緩。
上述結論是波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group,簡稱BCG)最新研究的其中一些關鍵成果。該公司試圖編制一項衡量經濟“福祉”的寬泛指標,超越政策制定者通常使用的國內生產總值(GDP)、通脹和失業率等指標。為此,BCG指數計入健康、教育和基礎設施以及GDP增長波動和不平等之類更為不尋常的指標。
該公司的《2015年可持續經濟發展評估報告》(2015 Sustainable Economic Development Assessment)包括一些可以預測的結果。在148個經濟體的福祉排名中,高居榜首的是挪威。在前十大經濟福祉國家中,有5個是北歐國家,而新加坡是唯一的非歐洲國家。
排名墊底的是最近幾年飽受戰火蹂躪的中非共和國。
但該報告也包含一些發人深省的觀察。
BCG報告的作者們寫道,美國排名第17位“主要是因為其收入平等方面的疲弱表現”。在10個衡量指標中,美國有8項落后于其他國家,尤其是在基礎設施方面。
BCG表示,盡管人們長期認為美國充滿了機遇,但結果表明,美國將財富和增長轉化為整體福祉的能力低于平均水平。
與德國對比尤其耐人尋味。從2006年到2013年,兩國GDP平均增長率均為1.1%(按購買力平價衡量),但德國在將這種增長轉化為更全面的經濟福祉方面做得更好。
BCG表示,歐洲最大經濟體將增長轉化為福祉的能力相當于一個平均增長率達到6.2%的經濟體,而美國僅相當于增長率為0.5%的經濟體。
按購買力平價衡量,中國同期平均增速接近12%,在將迅猛經濟增長轉化為經濟福祉方面總體上做得不錯。
然而,中國在148個經濟體中僅排名第76位,這主要是因為它在4項單獨指標上遜于全球中值:經濟穩定性、收入平等度、治理和環境。在BCG評比的所有經濟體中,中國的環境得分最低。
研究發現,中國將增長轉化為福祉的能力也依然遠高于其亞洲競爭對手印度。
按照BCG更為寬泛的經濟福祉指標,預計今年經濟增速將超過中國的印度,在148個國家中僅排名第110位,落后于危地馬拉、加納和圭亞那等國家。
BCG報告的作者們指出,印度在健康、教育和基礎設施以及減少貧困指標上近年有所進步。然而,它在環境、經濟穩定性和就業等其他指標上進展仍遜于平均水平。(中國進出口網)
Germans are benefiting more from their economic rebound than Americans are from the US recovery thanks to greater investment in education and infrastructure.
In China, rapid economic growth is being hindered by pollution and other factors and translating only slowly into broader economic “wellbeing” while in India, Asia’s new growth champion, progress has been even slower.
These are some of the key findings of the latest attempt by the Boston Consulting Group to compile a broad measure of economic “wellbeing” that goes beyond the usual metrics of gross domestic product, inflation and unemployment used by policy makers. To do so the BCG index takes into account investment in health, education and infrastructure as well as more unusual measures such as the volatility of GDP growth and inequality.
The consulting group’s 2015 Sustainable Economic Development Assessment includes some predictable results. Topping the list of 148 economies for wellbeing is Norway. Five of the top 10 countries for economic wellbeing are Nordic and Singapore is the only non-European country in the top decile.
At the very bottom of the list lies the Central African Republic, a country devastated by conflict in recent years.
But it also contains some thought-provoking observations.
The US comes in at number 17 “primarily because of its weak showing in income equality”, the BCG report’s authors write. It lags behind the rest of the world in eight of the 10 dimensions measured, particularly in infrastructure.
Despite the longstanding view that the US is a land of opportunity it turns out, according to BCG, that it is below average in its ability to convert both wealth and growth into a broader wellbeing.
The comparison with Germany is particularly striking. Between 2006 and 2013 both recorded an average GDP growth of 1.1 per cent (measured by purchasing power parity). But Germany did a much better job of translating that into a wider economic wellbeing.
The biggest economy in Europe’s ability to convert growth into wellbeing was equivalent, according to BCG, to an economy growing at an average rate of 6.2 per cent. In the case of the US it was equivalent to that delivered by growth of only 0.5 per cent.
China recorded average growth of almost 12 per cent in PPP terms over the period measured, according to BCG, and had done a generally good job of translating the breakneck growth into economic wellbeing.
However, it ranked only 76th out of 148 largely because it fell below the global median in four separate measures: economic stability, income equality, governance and the environment. It had the lowest score of any economy in the BCG rankings with regard to the environment.
China also remained well above Asian rival India in its ability to translate growth into wellbeing, the study found.
India, wher growth is this year expected to overtake that of China, came in just 110th out of 148 on the BCG measure of broader economic wellbeing, putting it behind countries such as Guatemala, Ghana and Guyana.
India has been making progress in health, education and infrastructure and also in poverty reduction, the BCG authors note. It still, however, recorded subpar progress in other dimensions including the environment, economic stability and employment.