歐元即將創(chuàng)下自歐元區(qū)危機(jī)達(dá)到高潮以來的最弱季度表現(xiàn)，這將讓政策制定者感到振奮，因?yàn)樗麄兿Ｍ钟s威脅、提振不斷走弱的歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)。
昨日，歐元兌美元匯率在一年多以來首次跌至1歐元兌1.28美元以下，相對(duì)于7月初的水平下跌了6.6%。照目前的趨勢(shì)，歐元兌美元匯率將創(chuàng)下自2011年秋人們對(duì)歐元區(qū)崩潰的擔(dān)憂情緒達(dá)到頂峰以來，幅度最大的季度下跌。
歐元貶值源于歐洲央行(ECB)自6月起采取了激進(jìn)舉措來放寬貨幣政策，包括本月的降息，以及宣布將開始購買私營部門資產(chǎn)。
不過，歐元兌美元匯率下跌還反映出了美元的回升，后者近幾周來表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁——美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)的量化寬松計(jì)劃即將告終，投資者則在關(guān)注美國在2015年加息的前景。
歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在電視上發(fā)表講話稱：“匯率的變化反映出歐洲相對(duì)于其他重要國家在貨幣政策方面的不同路線。”他說，歐洲央行仍將“在相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)”維持寬松的貨幣政策，“而其他國家的貨幣政策或許會(huì)逐漸反映出它們正在出現(xiàn)的復(fù)蘇”。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)強(qiáng)調(diào)，其貨幣政策路線將識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)情況而定。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已暗示可能不遲于明年年中加息，但外匯和債券市場(chǎng)目前的預(yù)期是不遲于明年3月加息，前提是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭加速。（更多資訊請(qǐng)關(guān)注中國進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
  The euro is heading for its weakest quarterly showing since the climax of the eurozone crisis in a lift to policy makers as they aim to fend off the threat of deflation and lift the bloc’s flagging economy.
The single currency fell below $1.28 to the dollar for the first time in more than a year yesterday, taking its losses against the greenback since the start of July to 6.6 per cent. That puts it on course for its steepest quarterly fall since the autumn of 2011, when fears of the currency bloc imploding were at their height.
The depreciation stems from the radical steps taken by the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy since June, including this month’s cuts in interest rates and the announcement it would start buying private sector assets.
But it also reflects a rally in the dollar that has gained momentum in recent weeks as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its quantitative easing programme and investors look to the prospect of US interest rates rising in 2015.
“The exchange rate movement reflects the different path of monetary policies in Europe versus the monetary policies in other important countries,” Mario Draghi, ECB president, told broadcasters. The ECB’s monetary policy would remain loose “for an extended period of time while other countries monetary policies may gradually acknowledge that recovery is taking place in their countries,” he said.
The Fed has stressed the course of its monetary policy will be determined by economic data. The Fed has hinted at possible rate rises by the middle of next year, but the currency and bond markets are pricing in an increase by March, if the US economy gathers momentum. （更多資訊請(qǐng)關(guān)注中國進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）