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唐熙華表示，禁止俄羅斯能源集團(tuán)進(jìn)入資本市場(chǎng)并限制它們獲得西方石油技術(shù)，最終將導(dǎo)致俄羅斯對(duì)石油生產(chǎn)的投資下降，從而損害長(zhǎng)期供應(yīng)。他說(shuō)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油氣繁榮掩蓋了日益增長(zhǎng)的全球供應(yīng)不足的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但這種效果將會(huì)消退，讓全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危險(xiǎn)地暴露于石油供應(yīng)可能中斷的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
唐熙華發(fā)表此言之際，美國(guó)和歐洲上周五擴(kuò)大了對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁，其中美方將歐洲主要能源提供商俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom)和私營(yíng)石油集團(tuán)盧克石油公司(Lukoil)列入不能利用美國(guó)商品、技術(shù)和服務(wù)開(kāi)發(fā)深水、北極海域和頁(yè)巖項(xiàng)目的制裁名單。歐盟和美國(guó)還對(duì)一些俄羅斯國(guó)有能源集團(tuán)的融資施加限制。
唐熙華在接受英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》采訪時(shí)表示：“美國(guó)的局面使世界產(chǎn)生了一種錯(cuò)誤的安全感。”他指出，頁(yè)巖繁榮推動(dòng)美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量自2008年以來(lái)猛增60%，但他問(wèn)道：“當(dāng)美國(guó)供應(yīng)見(jiàn)頂回落的時(shí)候，新的供應(yīng)將來(lái)自何處？”
隨著成熟油田的產(chǎn)量下降，世界寄望于加拿大、伊拉克和俄羅斯等地增加石油供應(yīng)。但唐熙華表示，俄羅斯在北極未開(kāi)發(fā)資源和西伯利亞頁(yè)巖油氣儲(chǔ)量的開(kāi)采受到制裁的威脅，“由于金融上的制裁，這些大型集團(tuán)將開(kāi)始削減它們的活動(dòng)”。
目前執(zhí)掌石油勘探公司Genel Energy、并擔(dān)任大宗商品交易商嘉能可(Glencore)董事長(zhǎng)的唐熙華，還對(duì)伊拉克石油產(chǎn)量大幅增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)提出質(zhì)疑。他說(shuō)，伊拉克將很難實(shí)現(xiàn)到2020年產(chǎn)量翻倍的目標(biāo)。
制裁可能危及俄羅斯國(guó)有控股的俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)和埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)等西方石油巨頭為勘探俄羅斯北極海域而成立的合資公司。巴克萊(Barclays)分析師邁克爾•科恩(Michael Cohen)表示，制裁也可能讓歐洲石油集團(tuán)和服務(wù)公司更難為它們當(dāng)前在俄羅斯的運(yùn)營(yíng)提供支持。
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US and EU sanctions against Moscow are in danger of turning round and biting the west by constraining global oil supply and pushing up prices, the former chief executive of BP haswarned.
Tony Hayward said that cutting Russia’s energy groups off from capital markets and restrictingtheir access to western oil technology would eventually lead to less investment in Russian oilproduction and damage long-term supply. He said the US shale boom had obscured thegrowing risks to the world’s supply but its effect would wear off, leaving the global economydangerously exposed to potential disruptions in the flow of oil.
He spoke as the US and Europe expanded sanctions against Russia on Friday, with the USadding Gazprom, Europe’s leading energy provider, and Lukoil, the privately owned oil group, tothe companies deprived of US goods, technology and services for deep water, Arctic offshoreand shale projects. The EU and US have also imposed restrictions on financing for somestate-owned Russian energy groups.
“The world has been lulled into a false sense of security because of what’s going on in the US,”Mr Hayward said in an interview with the Financial Times, referring to the shale boom that hasdriven a 60 per cent rise in US crude output since 2008. But he asked: “When US supplypeaks, wher will the new supply come from?”
As output from mature basins declines, the world has banked on new barrels from places suchas Canada, Iraq and Russia. But Russian production from untapped resources in the Arctic andshale reserves in Siberia are threatened by sanctions, he said. “Because of financial sanctions,the big gorillas are going to start cutting their activities.”
Mr Hayward, who runs oil explorer Genel Energy and is chairman of commodities groupGlencore, also questioned projections for a big increase in oil production from Iraq. He said thecountry would struggle to reach targets to double production by 2020.
Sanctions could endanger joint ventures that Rosneft, the state-controlled Russian oilgroup, has set up with western majors such as ExxonMobil to explore in Russia’s Arctic seas.Michael Cohen, an analyst at Barclays, said they could also make it harder for European oilgroups and service companies to provide support for their current operations in Russia.
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