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美歐經濟形勢對比——七點顯示美國占上風

7 ways the U.S. economy is trouncing Europe’s

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核心提示:毫無疑問,當前美國經濟局面要比大洋對面的歐洲更為樂觀。
 
毫無疑問,當前美國經濟局面要比大洋對面的歐洲更為樂觀。
1.國內生產總值
18個國家使用歐元作為貨幣的歐元區,公布的第二季度GDP增長0%。而之前第一季度增長為0.2%。美國經濟第一季度情況比較糟糕,下降了2.1%。但緊隨其后的是第二季度強勁增長4%,并且很多證據表明其經濟走強的趨勢,而不是走弱。(更多全球資訊瀏覽中國進出口網
2失業率
美國失業率是6.2%,而在歐元區為11.5%,其中希臘為27.2%,西班牙為24.5%,處于經濟衰退所造成的高失業的困境。這些國家的青年失業率高于50%,而在美國是13%左右。眾所周知,通常在歐洲解雇員工很件難事, 這意味著如果在美國裁員很常見的話,歐元區的這個比率會更高。
3通貨膨脹
在美國,通貨膨脹大約2%,企業通過給工人獲得加薪,讓他們提前應對小幅的價格上漲。在歐洲通貨膨脹率是0.4%,,接近通貨緊縮——通常是比通貨膨脹更為糟糕。經濟通貨緊縮,未來的貨幣將大大貶值,債務成本隨著時間的推移越來越高。

4央行刺激
美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲,fed)結束量化寬松政策,明年可能會開始提高利率,減少對經濟的負面影響。這就是隨著經濟的升溫美聯儲應對策略。相比之下,歐洲中央銀行仍在考慮是否應該開始量化寬松政策,歐洲似乎再次被美國落下。
5股票
今年迄今為止美國道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數和歐洲差距不大。但在過去的五年中美國道瓊斯工業指數的飆升了79%,而道瓊斯歐洲僅上升25%。差距表明在美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲,fed)的高度寬松的貨幣政策刺激下,美國經濟更為強大并且經濟已經開始復蘇。
6 銀行
美國銀行業在經歷了2008年金融危機,TARP救助和一系列新規訴訟后幾乎已恢復健康運作水平。然而,歐洲仍然忙著處理銀行倒閉和救助,比如最近在葡萄牙圣埃斯皮里圖銀行的倒閉,歐洲銀行仍解除風險價值數十億歐元的債務。結果是在美國信用經濟命脈正在慢慢回到正常,而歐洲卻遠遠落后。

7地緣政治壓力
烏克蘭的沖突幾乎沒有觸動美國經濟,但它已經刺痛了歐洲,而且情況似乎可能會惡化。“俄羅斯的金融制裁,軍事和能源產業最終會影響歐盟的工業生產,”Moody的分析最近寫道。俄羅斯的歐洲食品進口禁令將迫使許多農民另尋銷路,而其他市場可能在歐洲出售更多產品,這將推動價格下降和惡化通貨緊縮風險。如果莫斯科決定削減能源出口,歐洲將會處于不得不尋找其他天然氣和石油來源的局面,而美國由于繁榮的國內鉆井而不受影響。
對歐洲人來說他們對美國有很多合理的抱怨:美國的國會形同小丑,槍支到處都是,醫療保障不健全······ 然而從經濟層面來說美國現在比歐洲形勢要好。

7 ways the U.S. economy is trouncing Europe’s
We’ve got problems. There’s no doubt about that. But America seems like a breakout economy compared with the woes our European counterparts are dealing with.
1.GDP
The euro zone, which comprises the 18 countries that use the euro as their currency, just reported GDP growth of 0% for the second quarter. That comes after 0.2% growth in the first quarter. The U.S. economy had a terrible first quarter, too, with output falling by 2.1%. But that was followed by robust second-quarter growth of 4% and lots of other evidence of an economy getting stronger, not weaker.
2.Unemployment.
The U.S. unemployment rate is 6.2%. In the euro zone, it’s 11.5%. Greece, at 27.2%, and Spain, at 24.5%, suffer from depression-level unemployment. Youth unemployment in these countries has been higher than 50% in 2014; in the U.S. , it hovers around 13%. Keep in mind, it’s generally harder to fire workers in Europe, which means the euro zone rates might be higher still if U.S. -style layoffs were common there.
3 Inflation
In the United States, it’s about 2%, which is close to the sweet spot that allows workers to earn raises that keep them ahead of modest increases in prices (though that’s not happening yet). In Europe, inflation is 0.4%, which is dangerously close to deflation -- which is usually worse than inflation. In an economy with deflation, future money is worth less, which means debt costs more and more to pay off over time. And people often put off purchases when they believe prices will fall, which can torpedo growth and hiring.
4Central-bank stimulus
The Federal Reserve is winding down the extraordinary policy known as quantitative easing, and by next year will probably begin to raise interest rates, barring any shocks to the economy. That’s what the Fed is supposed to do as the economy heats up. The European Central Bank, by contrast, is still considering whether it should begin quantitative easing, which the Fed kicked off in 2008. Again, Europe seems years behind the United States.

5 Stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and its European counterpart, the Dow Europe, are both within a few points of flat so far this year. But during the past five years, the DJIA has soared by 79% while the Dow Europe has ticked up just 25%. That performance gap reflects the much stronger U.S. economy and the head start America has on recovery, along with the Federal Reserve's highly accommodative monetary policy.
6 Banks
The U.S. banking sector is nearly healthy again, after the excesses of the early 2000s led to the 2008 financial meltdown, the extraordinary TARP bailouts and a slew of lawsuits and new regulations. Europe, however, is still dealing with bank failures and bailouts, such as the recent collapse of Banco Espirito Santo in Portugal. And European lenders are still unwinding billions of euros’ worth of risky debt. The upshot is that credit — the lifeblood of the economy — is slowly getting back to normal in the United States, while Europe lags far behind.
7 Geopolitical pressure
The conflict in Ukraine barely touches the U.S. economy, but it’s already causing pain in Europe, and this seems likely to worsen. “Sanctions targeting Russia’s financial, military and energy industries will eventually take a toll on European unio industrial production,” Moody’s Analytics wrote recently. A Russian ban on European food imports will force many farmers to find other markets for their food, possibly selling more in Europe, which would drive prices down and worsen the risk of deflation. And Europe stands to suffer if Moscow decides to curtail energy shipments, since it would have to find other sources of gas and oil — a problem the United States no longer has, thanks to a boom in domestic drilling.
更多全球資訊瀏覽中國進出口網) 
Europeans, for their part, have plenty of legitimate gripes with America: We have a clown Congress, guns are everywher, and more Americans have TVs than healthcare. Economically, however, America remains a much better place to be right now.

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