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美元的飆漲預計本周將給美國的一些大型跨國企業造成沖擊，原因是有逾五分之一的標普500 (S&P 500)指數成份股企業將陸續發布明顯受到美元升值9%影響的季報。
將于周五前發布季報的企業包括IBM、通用汽車(General Motors)、聯合技術(United Technologies)、可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和麥當勞(McDonald's)等巨型藍籌企業。
標普指數今年以來僅上漲1.1%，投資者擔心多家企業可能會步通用電氣(GE)和菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris)后塵，這兩家公司上周均表示美元走強導致其首季度收入減少近10億美元。通用電氣表示，匯率變動使其利潤減少1.2億美元；菲利普莫里斯表示，這一因素使其“公司營業利潤”(operating companies income)減少5.85億美元。
貝萊德(BlackRock)全球首席投資策略師拉斯•凱斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示，人們現在又開始擔心希臘會爆發新的危機，美國最近的經濟數據也令人失望，不過，企業利潤很可能將成為今年驅動美股的一支關鍵力量。
他表示：“就2015年而言，決定性因素將是利潤情況、以及企業能否克服美元走強的影響。”
迄今為止發布的財報證明，人們最近對不斷下跌的能源價格和不斷走強的美元的擔憂是有道理的，這兩者已導致一些人對企業利潤預期做出金融危機以來幅度最大的下調。
FactSet預計，標普500指數成份股企業首季度利潤將下降4%，收入將減少3%。但它預計那些只有不到一半銷售額在美國取得的企業，利潤和收入都將下降10%。
去年10月末至今年3月中，美元指數（該指數衡量美元相對一籃子貨幣的匯率）攀升15%。
歐元相對美元出現自前者1999年誕生以來最大幅度的季度下跌，許多策略師急忙將其所預期的美元與歐元實現平價的日期向前調整，盡管較差的美國經濟數據已緩和了這一預期。（中國進出口網）
A surging dollar is expected to hit some of the largest US multinationals this week, as more than a fifth of S&P 500 companies report results for a quarter marked by a 9 per cent jump in their domestic currency.
Blue-chip behemoths such as IBM, General Motors, United Technologies, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are among those set to release earnings by Friday.
With the S&P up only 1.1 per cent this year, investors are concerned that several companies could emulate General Electric and Philip Morris, which each said last week that the dollar reduced their revenues by nearly $1bn in the first quarter. GE said currency swings hit profits by $120m, and Philip Morris reported a $585m hit to “operating companies income”.
Fears of a new Greek crisis are resurfacing and US economic data has disappointed of late, but corporate earnings are likely to be a key driving force for US equities this year, said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at Blackrock.
“For 2015, it will come down to earnings and whether companies can overcome a higher dollar,” he said.
Earnings reports so far have validated recent concerns over falling energy prices and a rising dollar that have led to the largest downgrade of earnings estimates since the financial crisis.
FactSet expects first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 to decline 4 per cent and revenues to dro 3 per cent. But it expects both earnings and revenues to be down 10 per cent for companies that generate less than half their sales in the US.
Between the end of October and mid-March, the dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of its peers – climbed 15 per cent .
The euro suffered its biggest quarterly decline against the dollar since it was created in 1999, and many strategists hastily brought forward their target date for the dollar reaching parity with its transatlantic partner, although that expectation has been tempered by poor US economic data.
