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最近，11月11日網(wǎng)購十分火爆。分析師們十分希望能夠找出證據(jù)，證明消費者需求上漲能夠帶動緩慢增長的經(jīng)濟。
不幸的是，電商行業(yè)解決經(jīng)濟問題的方法似乎并不可行。
中國電商巨人阿里巴巴集團有限公司在2009年時發(fā)起了光棍節(jié)大促銷。該節(jié)日（11月11日）由四個“1”組成，現(xiàn)已成為網(wǎng)上購物的盛大節(jié)日。
人們期待今年的訂單數(shù)額將會刷新記錄。或許在線消費可以部分抵消投資和出口下跌的經(jīng)濟下滑走勢。
然而，如果我們仔細考慮一下這件事，這種希望是不現(xiàn)實的。
光棍節(jié)的銷量劇增其實是“銷量透支”，消費者們?yōu)殡[性需求買單。有些人在雙十一之前的幾天甚至幾個月都不購物，只為了在11月11日當天能夠在打折中獲得一些優(yōu)惠。而且在節(jié)日過后，銷量也會下滑。
并且，并沒有證據(jù)表明這種反常的消費抑制現(xiàn)象會讓中國全年的消費水平上升。
實際上，很多商家把這看做一種營銷手段，而非實際增加銷量。有些不誠實的網(wǎng)上零售商還會欺騙消費者，提供虛假折扣，讓消費者誤以為自己以優(yōu)惠價購買。例如，他們在光棍節(jié)之前把價格抬上去，然后在當天打著“打折促銷的”幌子。
然而，消費者們越來越理性，越來越能避免沖動消費。他們認為這種只有一天的打折促銷其實只是一種噱頭，目的是為了讓他們花錢而已。
實際上，最近幾年中國消費者的需求已經(jīng)很穩(wěn)定了。隨著經(jīng)濟低迷，消費漲勢也有所減緩，同經(jīng)濟走勢保持一致。
拉動中國經(jīng)濟增長的三大主要力量——內需、投資和出口之中，消費水平是最穩(wěn)定的。考慮到經(jīng)濟低迷的現(xiàn)狀會影響到居民消費，盡管雙十一當天有購買活動，也并不會出現(xiàn)消費者需求大幅度增長的情況。
誠然，在線購買十分方便，的確會促使消費者們的購買欲。但是同時，它也會使傳統(tǒng)購買需求被壓縮，在一定程度上抵消了電商使經(jīng)濟增長的作用。
例如像中國一樣的發(fā)展中國家，阻撓經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的本質在于因為國家沒有成熟的社保體系，消費者們對未來感到擔憂。很多人擔心他們退休以后的生活，所以在買東西的時候也會特別謹慎。
政策制定者需要加快提高社保體系步伐，提高收入，使人們對未來有安全感，鼓勵其消費。
然而，現(xiàn)在的首要任務還是要使經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定。中國的基礎設施投資在最近幾個月發(fā)展很快，抵消了出口下滑的缺口。對于經(jīng)濟下滑，許多人都寄希望于消費快速增長，為經(jīng)濟提供動力。
誠然，零售商銷量從7月的10.5%上漲到了9月的10.9%，還可能會在雙十一的時候繼續(xù)上漲。但是，這樣的小幅度增長并不會會影響經(jīng)濟走勢，雙十一的銷量只是消費的九牛一毛而已。（中國進出口網(wǎng)）
The online shopping sale on Nov 11 has been put in the spotlight with analysts keen to find solid evidence of improving consumer demand that might bolster the slowing economy.
Unfortunately, the prospering e-commerce industry can hardly solve the problems facing the economy on its own.
China's e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Ltd launched the online Singles' Day sale in 2009. Since then, the date, made up of four lonely "ones", has become the world's biggest online shopping event.
The expectations are this year will be another bonanza and set a new sales record, which has ignited hopes that online consumption can at least partially offset the downward pressure on the economy from falling investment and exports.
A closer look at the event, however, shows such hopes are unrealistic.
The soaring sales on Singles' Day are actually a "sales overdraft" that results from the sudden release of consumers' pent up demand. Many people opt not to make planned purchases days or months ahead of Nov 11 hoping to benefit from the promotional discounts offered that day, and sales generally fall sharply after the event.
There is yet no evidence to support the notion that the contrived shopping spree provides a real boost to the country's overall annual consumption.
In reality, for many brands it represents a marketing opportunity rather than a means to significantly increase their annual sales. Some dishonest online retailers even use tricks to avoid offering real discounts in a bid to deceive buyers into thinking they are getting a bargain. For example, they may raise prices in the run-up to Singles' Day before announcing "big discounts" for Nov 11.
However, consumers are becoming more rational and avoiding the impetuous spending that has characterized previous one-day sales specials as they realize such events are only a gimmick to get them to part with their money.
Actually, growth in China's consumer demand has been quite stable in recent years. And with the overall economy weakening, the growth in consumption has been trending down, which is in line with the overall economic trend.
Among the three major factors driving a country's economic growth - domestic consumption, investment and exports, domestic consumption is the most stable. And considering the weak economy, which affects people's confidence in spending, there will hardly be any major improvement in consumer demand despite the hurly-burly of the Nov 11 shopping event.
There is no denying that the convenience of online shopping can stimulate people's desire to buy, but at the same time it squeezes traditional consumer demand, partly offsetting its positive role in economic growth.
For a developing country such as China, the biggest hurdle preventing fast consumption growth is consumer concern about the future because of the country's immature social security network. Many people are worried about their post-retirement life and are very cautious in making purchasing decisions.
Policymakers need to accelerate their pace in improving the social security network and raise people's incomes to stabilize people's expectations for the future and encourage them to spend.
Yet the top priority at the moment is to stabilize the economy. China's infrastructure investment has been growing exceptionally fast in recent months to offset the effect of the falling exports. Against that backdrop, many people have pinned their hopes on faster consumption growth to provide a more sustainable driver of the country's economy.
Indeed, retail sales rose steadily from July to September - from 10.5 percent to 10.9 percent year-on-year, and they are expected to rise further thanks to the Nov 11 event. Still, such small improvements will not suffice to anchor the economy and the Nov 11 sales boom is but a dro in the bucket of required spending.
