世界主要能源預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)——國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)周二表示,石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC,簡(jiǎn)稱歐佩克)產(chǎn)油量增加以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩意味著,原油供過于求的現(xiàn)象將延續(xù)到明年。
IEA稱,隨著低油價(jià)的刺激效應(yīng)逐漸消失、依賴大宗商品收入的國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)減弱,預(yù)計(jì)石油需求增長(zhǎng)將出現(xiàn)“顯著放緩”。
“每桶50美元的油價(jià)是推動(dòng)全球石油市場(chǎng)再平衡的一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力因素,”IEA在其備受關(guān)注的月度報(bào)告中稱,“但是,明年石油需求增速預(yù)計(jì)將顯著放緩、伊朗料將增加產(chǎn)油量……很可能會(huì)使市場(chǎng)供過于求的狀態(tài)延續(xù)到整個(gè)2016年。”
IEA補(bǔ)充稱,一旦針對(duì)伊朗的制裁解除,這個(gè)歐佩克成員國(guó)就可能增產(chǎn),其影響預(yù)計(jì)將大于美國(guó)自2008年以來石油產(chǎn)量首次下降的影響。
油價(jià)暴跌推動(dòng)石油需求出現(xiàn)近10年以來最強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)——全球石油日需求量增加180萬桶,達(dá)到每日9450萬桶。汽油需求尤其強(qiáng)勁,表明較低的油價(jià)鼓勵(lì)了機(jī)動(dòng)車駕駛者更多地開車。但是,IEA預(yù)計(jì),這一效應(yīng)將會(huì)消失,明年的需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將放慢至120萬桶/天。
IEA稱,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景“更加悲觀”。IEA利用國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)來對(duì)石油需求狀況作出估計(jì)。IMF本月早些時(shí)候表示,2015年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將是全球金融危機(jī)以來最慢的一年。
加拿大、巴西、委內(nèi)瑞拉、俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯等依賴石油收入的經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩,也會(huì)對(duì)石油需求增長(zhǎng)造成影響。
“在其中很多國(guó)家,在其他條件相同的情況下,大宗商品價(jià)格下滑最終等同于公共開支減少,可能會(huì)抑制消費(fèi)者支出,”IEA稱。
然而,在油價(jià)暴跌的情況下,歐佩克大型成員國(guó)正慢慢地從成本較高的產(chǎn)油國(guó)——比如生產(chǎn)頁巖油的美國(guó)——手中奪回市場(chǎng)份額。
由于歐佩克成員國(guó)產(chǎn)量增加抵消了美國(guó)以及非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)減產(chǎn)的影響,9月全球石油日均供應(yīng)量穩(wěn)定在將近9660萬桶的水平。
“高成本的供應(yīng)——主要是非歐佩克國(guó)家——正在被擠出市場(chǎng),”IEA稱,“美國(guó)的石油供應(yīng)——此前一直是供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)力——已經(jīng)在迅速下降。”
受全球大型能源公司削減支出20%以上的影響,9月非歐佩克國(guó)家的日均石油供應(yīng)量減少18萬桶,達(dá)到每日5830萬桶。預(yù)計(jì)2015年的日均產(chǎn)油量將處于這一水平,而明年預(yù)計(jì)將進(jìn)一步減少50萬桶。
“放緩最多的是美國(guó),”IEA稱,“自9月初以來鉆探活動(dòng)進(jìn)一步減少,預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)輕致密油(light-tight oil)產(chǎn)量將加速下滑。”
美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量的同比增幅,從2015年初的160萬桶減少至30萬桶。
不過,非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)狀況超出了預(yù)期,8月、9月巴西和俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量均刷新了紀(jì)錄。
9月,歐佩克日均原油供應(yīng)量增加9萬桶,達(dá)到3170萬桶——伊拉克產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄抵消了沙特減產(chǎn)的影響。今年迄今,歐佩克平均日產(chǎn)原油3120萬桶,產(chǎn)油量較去年同期日均增加100萬桶。面對(duì)油價(jià)大幅下跌,歐佩克決定保持產(chǎn)量以重新贏回客戶,而沒有為支持價(jià)格而增產(chǎn)。(中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng))
Higher oil output from Opec and a slowdown in world economic growth means the crude oil glut will persist through next year, the world’s leading energy forecaster said on Tuesday.
The International Energy Agency said it expected a “marked slowdown” in oil demand growth as the stimulus from lower prices faded and as economic activity weakened in countries dependent on commodity revenues.
“Oil at $50 a barrel is a powerful driver in rebalancing the global oil market,” the IEA said in its closely watched monthly report. “But a projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels...慍爀攀 likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016.”
An increase in production from Opec member Iran once sanctions are lifted is expected to overshadow the first dro in US oil output since 2008, the IEA added.
The collapse in oil prices has supported the strongest oil demand growth in almost a decade, with low prices helping boost demand by 1.8m barrels a day to 94.5m b/d. Gasoline demand has been particularly strong, suggesting motorists have been encouraged to drive more by lower prices. But the IEA forecasts that effect will fade, with demand growth set to slow to 1.2m b/d next year.
The IEA, which uses the International Monetary Fund’s growth assumptions for its oil demand estimates, said the global economic outlook was “more pessimistic”. The fund said earlier this month the world economy would grow for 2015 at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
Weaker economic growth in oil-dependent economies such as Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia will also have an impact on demand growth.
“Lower commodity prices, with all else held equal, eventually equate to lower public spending and a potential dampening in consumer expenditure in many of these countries,” the IEA said.
The largest Opec countries are slowly succeeding, however, in taking back market share from higher cost producers like US shale amid the oil price crash.
World oil supply held steady near 96.6m b/d in September as a dro in output from the US, and other producers outside of Opec, was offset by increased supply from the cartel itself.
“High-cost supply — primarily non-Opec — is being forced out,” the IEA said. “Supply in the US — which had been the motor of growth — is already sinking swiftly.”
Non-Opec supply slipped 180,000 b/d to 58.3m b/d in September as spending cuts of more than 20 per cent by the world’s biggest energy companies had an impact. Production is expected to average at this level for 2015, before dropping a further 500,000 b/d next year.
“The sharpest slowdown is in the US,” the IEA said. “Further reductions in drilling activity since the start of September are expected to accelerate declines in US light tight oil production.”
US year-over-year gains have eased to just 300,000 b/d from 1.6m b/d in early 2015.
Non-Opec supplies nevertheless exceeded expectations, with Brazil and Russia recording record output levels during August and September.
Opec crude supply — led by record Iraqi output, which offset declines from Saudi Arabia — rose 90,000 b/d in September to 31.7m b/d. Year to date the group has pumped 31.2m b/d, 1m b/d higher than the same period a year ago, before the cartel decided to keep the taps open to win back customers rather than defend prices.