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2015年，煤炭行業(yè)似乎連連傳出壞消息。
反對(duì)化石燃料的活動(dòng)人士持續(xù)不斷地呼吁從煤炭生產(chǎn)公司撤資，同時(shí)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格和生產(chǎn)商的股價(jià)持續(xù)下降。下月在巴黎舉行的全球氣候變化會(huì)議，或許將使年尾出現(xiàn)更多反對(duì)煤炭和其他化石能源的活動(dòng)。
自2011年以來(lái)，廣泛作為全球基準(zhǔn)的澳大利亞熱煤價(jià)格已經(jīng)下跌了約60%。在美國(guó)，沃爾特能源(Walter Energy)和阿爾法自然資源公司(Alpha Natural Resources)等知名煤礦企業(yè)已因無(wú)力應(yīng)對(duì)煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的下跌，進(jìn)入破產(chǎn)程序。
并非所有生產(chǎn)這種充足但越來(lái)越不受歡迎的燃料的礦商都已做好認(rèn)輸?shù)臏?zhǔn)備。但隨著一些關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)似乎開(kāi)始不可阻擋地下跌，所有礦商都必須適應(yīng)這個(gè)全球行業(yè)在形態(tài)和重要性方面發(fā)生的痛苦變化。
考慮美國(guó)的例子，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)的最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，煤炭產(chǎn)量正處于至少2009年以來(lái)的最低水平：截至6月底的3個(gè)月里，煤炭產(chǎn)出比去年同期降低了14%。
隨著電力部門轉(zhuǎn)向更便宜的天然氣，煤炭消費(fèi)量正在下降。同時(shí)，由于更嚴(yán)格的排放規(guī)則，預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多燃煤發(fā)電廠關(guān)閉。
今年4月，美國(guó)天然氣發(fā)電首次超過(guò)了煤炭發(fā)電。
根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的說(shuō)法，到2019年，美國(guó)的煤炭需求量會(huì)回落到上世紀(jì)80年代初的水平。目前美國(guó)的煤炭出口也處于五年來(lái)的最低水平，而平均出口價(jià)格則從2011年的每噸150美元跌至每噸80美元。
考慮到這樣的預(yù)測(cè)，不難理解籠罩在美國(guó)煤炭礦商身上的陰霾。美國(guó)最大煤炭公司皮博迪能源(Peabody Energy)的股票在過(guò)去5年中下跌了97%。
中國(guó)的煤炭使用也在快速變化。中國(guó)被位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署稱為“煤炭界的中心”。2013年，中國(guó)煤炭需求量占全球的一半以上。但隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)減速并轉(zhuǎn)為能源密集程度較低的發(fā)展模式，中國(guó)對(duì)煤炭的需求也在放緩。
中國(guó)也開(kāi)始認(rèn)識(shí)到空氣污染的環(huán)境問(wèn)題。根據(jù)美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署的說(shuō)法，中國(guó)的煤炭使用量“2014年基本與上年持平”。其數(shù)據(jù)表明，今年迄今中國(guó)的煤炭進(jìn)口比去年同期降低30%。
然而，預(yù)計(jì)世界上其他一些地方的煤炭使用量將快速增長(zhǎng)。上月對(duì)東南亞的情況進(jìn)行關(guān)注的國(guó)際能源署表示，接下來(lái)25年，該地區(qū)對(duì)煤炭的需求將成為所有能源來(lái)源中增長(zhǎng)最快的，取代該地區(qū)能源組合中石油的地位。與世界其他地區(qū)的趨勢(shì)相反，未來(lái)25年，在這個(gè)增長(zhǎng)最快的地區(qū)，煤炭在發(fā)電中的比重預(yù)計(jì)將從今天的不到三分之一增長(zhǎng)到50%左右。
世界第二大煤炭進(jìn)口國(guó)印度的煤炭需求預(yù)計(jì)將進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，煤炭使用從大西洋整體轉(zhuǎn)移至太平洋盆地的趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)牢牢確立。
“對(duì)許多國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，未來(lái)數(shù)年的能源選擇將是煤炭，”世界煤炭協(xié)會(huì)(World Coal Association)首席執(zhí)行官本杰明斯波頓(Benjamin Sporton)表示。
對(duì)于煤炭支持者來(lái)說(shuō)，這意味著將更加需要能夠降低這種燃料環(huán)境成本的技術(shù)——從更高效的發(fā)電站到碳捕獲和封存技術(shù)等。
然而，持不同意見(jiàn)的人士會(huì)在此時(shí)煤炭行業(yè)面臨財(cái)務(wù)困境之際對(duì)其施加更多壓力，以抑制產(chǎn)出。
呼吁對(duì)煤炭行業(yè)撤資的活動(dòng)人士聲稱，他們成功地促使一批投資基金同意減少或者終止對(duì)化石能源的投資，盡管這類承諾中許多只影響“純粹”的煤炭礦業(yè)公司，而非更大型的多樣化經(jīng)營(yíng)礦商，煤炭占后者盈利的比重更小。
煤炭礦商的估值下降目前更多是與供過(guò)于求和需求乏力有關(guān)，而非因?yàn)樯鲜龊粲醭焚Y人士所聲稱取得的成功。
然而，這些活動(dòng)旨在對(duì)一些礦商施加更為持久的壓力，在這些礦商試圖穩(wěn)住煤炭在全球能源組合中的地位之際，這是又一個(gè)使事情復(fù)雜的因素。（中國(guó)進(jìn)出口網(wǎng)）
The bad news for the coal industry has seemed relentless throughout 2015.
While campaigners against fossil fuels have kept up a steady drumbeat of calls to disinvest from companies producing coal, prices and share values of producers have continued to head south. The year may end with more moves against coal and other fossil fuels at global climate change talks next month in Paris.
Thermal coal prices from Australia, a widely used global benchmark, are down about 60 per cent from 2011. In the US, some well-known coal miners including Walter Energy and Alpha Natural Resources have entered bankruptcy, unable to cope with the price dro.
Not all miners of this abundant but increasingly unloved fuel are ready to throw in the towel. But all are havin to adapt to wrenching change in the shape and importance of a global industry as some key markets enter what seems inexorable decline.
Consider the US, wher the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration show coal production at the lowest level since at least 2009: output in the three months to the end of June was 14 per cent lower than in the same period last year.
Consumption is declining as the power sector turns to cheap natural gas, while more coal-fired power plants are expected to close in response to tougher emissions rules.
In April, the US generated more of its electricity from gas than from coal for the first time.
By 2019, US coal demand will be back to levels last seen in the early 1980s, according to the International Energy Agency. US coal exports are also at their lowest level in five years, while the average export price is down from $150 per ton in 2011 to $80.
Given such forecasts, it is easy to understand the gloom over US miners. Shares in Peabody Energy, the largest US coal miner, are down 97 per cent over the past five years.
In China, which the Paris-based International Energy Agency calls “the centre of the coal world”, coal use is also changing fast. The country accounted for more than half of global coal demand in 2013. But China’s demand is slowing as the economy cools and switches to less energy intensive forms of growth.
China is also waking up to environmental concerns over air pollution. China’s use of coal was “essentially flat in 2014”, according to the US EIA. Its data suggest imports are down 30 per cent so far in 2015 compared with last year.
Yet there are other areas of the world wher coal use is expected to grow quickly. Focusing last month on Southeast Asia, the IEA said coal demand would expand at the fastest rate among all energy sources over the next 25 years, overtaking oil in the region’s energy mix. Contrary to the trend in other parts of the world, coal’s share in power generation in the fast-growing region is expected to increase — from less than one-third today to about 50 per cent over the next quarter century.
India, the world’s second-largest coal importer, is expected to see further strong growth in coal demand and an overall shift in coal use from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin is well entrenched.
“For many countries the energy choice for years to come will be coal,” says Benjamin Sporton, chief executive of the World Coal Association.
For supporters of coal, this implies a greater need for technology that enables the fuel to be used with less environmental cost — from more efficient power stations to carbon capture and storage techniques.
Yet other voices would rather put more pressure on the coal industry at a time of financial distress to curb output.
Divestment campaigners claim success in prompting a host of investment funds to agree to reduce or end investments in fossil fuels, although many of the commitments made will only affect “pure play” coal miners and not the larger diversified miners, wher a smaller percentage of profits stems from coal.
The plunge in coal miners’ valuations so far has more to do with oversupply and lacklustre demand than with the success claimed by the pro-divestment effort.
Yet the campaign is set to put further enduring pressure on some miners and is another complicating factor as they try to shore up coal’s role in the global energy mix.
